Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 53956.324441 57189.851569 60431.394587 63922.149850 67572.396194 71274.086005 75309.089224
2024-10-06 49230.516783 54199.064449 59327.851170 65009.107180 71117.521699 77479.188633 84596.874274
2024-10-13 45576.976032 51710.055830 58188.569597 65524.299451 73581.947221 82144.985252 91914.958874
2024-10-20 42460.002627 49421.411936 56919.510779 65567.099965 75235.253691 85681.512194 97791.207721
2024-10-27 39751.542773 47332.723850 55640.249744 65376.898015 76431.381758 88547.502844 102785.513704
2024-11-03 38204.391517 46406.875276 55531.493457 66376.134060 78852.628381 92695.386805 109151.587469
2024-11-10 36729.127843 45448.084404 55283.037039 67122.639186 80909.202718 96375.764805 114954.927349
2024-11-17 35211.191823 44341.494550 54776.697644 67490.993262 82463.854232 99434.798385 120018.262975
2024-11-24 33646.550341 43093.068109 54026.604317 67501.751720 83540.982868 101897.593304 124363.658339
2024-12-01 32392.324062 42150.773635 53579.467172 67816.164874 84930.325698 104692.903100 129080.998873
2024-12-08 31106.372851 41108.168008 52956.834731 67869.694424 85967.816319 107045.833928 133263.332590
2024-12-15 30382.277907 40719.416654 53093.116180 68812.227273 88052.101711 110631.428352 138914.219149
2024-12-22 29173.007875 39692.924645 52426.063931 68762.703403 88939.889784 112810.630106 142932.682184
2024-12-29 28601.296201 39446.858356 52705.625609 69867.647243 91235.147271 116694.903651 149032.082118
2025-01-05 27800.540989 38873.285594 52546.725111 70403.454679 92815.352410 119710.025735 154091.662760
2025-01-12 26824.706067 38034.931112 52019.614722 70446.706922 93761.373917 121938.457263 158192.146134
2025-01-19 25798.256048 37092.093179 51324.489507 70244.824847 94374.541028 123740.717774 161763.539155
2025-01-26 25382.420144 36937.049340 51626.117090 71302.973024 96569.038897 127501.899129 167769.107464
2025-02-02 24877.655052 36642.210876 51729.431596 72093.419969 98418.890040 130838.961740 173266.206374
2025-02-09 24234.159428 36136.521103 51536.740898 72483.425180 99747.278175 133522.332782 177958.240505
2025-02-16 23470.245379 35440.702224 51070.049451 72494.814903 100573.834035 135567.068530 181852.345484
2025-02-23 22871.370569 34951.379667 50859.655241 72827.692231 101805.765519 138121.947575 186397.412394
2025-03-02 22194.443925 34331.312746 50454.118901 72884.363598 102665.638277 140198.457272 190341.087501